Why the public loves the over

Look at where the public's money goes on game totals and one pattern shows up again and again: the crowd likes the over.

Our own card shows it. From October 8 to October 21, we made 77 picks on totals across hockey, basketball, baseball and football. All 77 were unders. Every time 90% or more of the public's money landed on one side of a total in that stretch, it was the over.

Why fans lean over

An over gives you something to root for. Every goal, basket and run pushes it closer. An under asks you to cheer for nothing happening, which is a hard sell on a Friday night with friends.

Memory plays a part too. People remember the 7-6 shootout and the 45-point game. The 2-1 grinder doesn't make the highlights, so it doesn't shape how fans picture the next game.

And big names pull money. A total featuring star scorers draws over money almost regardless of where the number sits.

Why it matters to the house

A total is set to split the action, so the house collects its margin whatever the score. When the money piles onto the over, that balance breaks. The house is exposed on the over and needs the game to stay under.

That's the same logic behind fading the public on sides. A lopsided total is a spot where the house badly needs one result, and we take the side the house needs.

What we do with it

When 90% or more of the money is on the over, our pick is the under, as long as the price sits in our range (no worse than -130, no longer than +120). In baseball, totals are the only picks we make.

A recent example: on October 21, 96% of the public's money was on the over 5.5 goals in Flyers at Sabres. We took the under at +116. Final score: Flyers 3, Sabres 1. Four goals.

Lopsided totals still go over plenty of nights. That's why every pick is logged before the game starts and graded on the final, wins and losses alike, on our public record.

The short version

Fans like rooting for points, so the money leans over. When it leans 90% or more, we take the under and let the record speak for itself.

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